No Carryover: Why Pacers’ Lost Season Won’t Affect the Next
By TYLER SMITH (@TylerSmith_ISL)
ISL Editor
INDIANAPOLIS — All throughout the magical playoff run of last season, I continued to remind fans that one game’s outcome wasn’t indicative of the next one. It’s natural to lose confidence while watching a lackluster performance, or thinking the opponent has your team “figured out,” but each game is its own animal. One example would be the Knicks beating the Pacers by 17 points in Game 5, only to be followed by the Pacers flipping the script, winning by 17 and themselves and clinching the series in Game Six. What does this have to do with the current team or situation? I’m glad you asked.
In the same way one game often means very little for the next one, I have the same opinion about this entire season. There’s actually no doubt in my mind that the Pacers could go from the NBA’s worst record to title contenders again from this year to the next.
I’ve already seen numerous fans getting worried about next year’s team, saying they are farther than a Haliburton/Zubac pairing away from being a real threat again. When you watch bad basketball for several months, it’s easy to feel that way. Allow me to push back on any of those concerns. First of all, a Haliburton and Zubac pairing is ridiculously strong That’s 40% of your starting lineup, and the engine of the entire machine. Even if Haliburton takes a little time to find his groove, I think there’s a good chance he’s playing elite basketball again by early winter. As we’ve already seen, he also makes everyone around him better. So you’re not just getting an All-NBA talent back, you’re making the Nesmith’s of the world a lot better in the process.
There have been plenty of quick turnarounds in the past in this league. The Celtics went from 24 wins to 66 in 2007. The Spurs did it twice with +35 and +36 game improvements. The Suns went from 29 to 62 wins after adding Steve Nash, and the Lakers had a +36 win differential one season as well. In many cases, simply adding a top draft pick was the main reason. In other cases, it was about development and better health. For the Pacers, they hope it’s a combination of all of the above. Personally, I think this team could be a contender in the East next season even if they don’t land a top-four pick. If they do land the top-four? Look out world.
This season, the Pacers have missed an incredibly high number of games due to injury, and have used around 34 different starting lineups. The nights of only missing Haliburton have been few and far between. It’s been a major challenge getting any kind of rotation in rhythm. Injuries are a big part of today’s game, but clearly this team has faced an abnormal amount. Head Coach Rick Carlisle called it a “year of extraordinary circumstance,” before Friday’s game against New York.
Another huge part of the equation is the motivation factor. I’m not questioning any of the current Pacers or suggesting they haven’t still played their hearts out this season when on the court. It would simply be naive to think every game this season has the same feel or sense of urgency as last year, or the one that will start this October. Whether you’re a competitor or not, it’s a lot more difficult to defend for 48 minutes in a lost season when you’re 20 games out of the playoff picture, all the while knowing your star (and many others) aren’t suiting up anytime soon. Once again, that doesn’t mean a whole lot for how this team will defend when their record says 0-0 six months from now.
Make no mistake about it: this won’t be an easy challenge for the Pacers. Getting healthy is clearly the biggest step, but it will still take a lot of work to get back to where they want to go. The dynamics in the East have changed a bit, and could change even more after this summer. The good news is- the Pacers will have a very talented and motivated group ready to get the bad taste of this season out of their mouths. With or without success in the Draft Lottery, this team needs to get and stay healthy, add some scoring/depth off the bench, and we could see one of the wildest three-year stretches for a team in quite some time. Next season will have a completely different feel from day one, and there’s a good chance we’ll start to experience some of the Pacer magic once again.
