Pacers Getting Hot as the Trade Deadline Looms
By TYLER SMITH
ISL Editor
INDIANAPOLIS — While the Indiana Pacers have improved their play on the court of late, it’s the potential “off the court” news that continues to grab the most attention. The NBA Trade Deadline is just days away, and fans are curious to see if the Pacers will make a move, while also keeping tabs all season long on the team’s Draft Lottery position.
Every season is sacred, as Theo Epstein used to say. Everyone knows the deal in Indy, however. It’s all about 2026-2027. Making a savvy trade (or two), adding a top draft pick, and getting Haliburton back is on the wish list for a team that hopes to be right back in the mix when October rolls around. The first part of the equation could come to fruition this week as the Trade Deadline looms on Thursday. Kevin Pritchard and the front office has an incredible track record in trades, and it could be time to strike once again. They’ve also proven they won’t make a trade just to make one, however, and it’s still very possible the wheeling and dealing doesn’t happen until the summer.
The big questions remain: will Bennedict Mathurin get dealt? Will the Pacers try to find their next starting center, or at least bring someone who will compete for it? Rick Carlisle said he doesn’t expect any movement, but also added that he says that every year. As I wrote in a previous column, I don’t think the Pacers can risk losing Mathurin for nothing, but you also have to make sure the return is solid for your previous lotto pick.
As for the Draft Lottery odds, the Pacers have been “hurting” those percentages of late. After thrilling wins recently over the Thunder and Bulls, the Pacers held on to defeat the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday night, giving them three wins in their last four games, and a record of 7-5 over their last twelve.
“I’m happy for the guys,” said Head Coach Rick Carlisle on Saturday. “They fought hard. They like the feeling of winning games.”
The Pacers scored a season-high 80 points in the 1st Half against Atlanta, but only led by seven at the break. Carlisle: “We didn’t watch any film at halftime. We just challenged each other to be more physical. The fact that we had 80 points but just a seven point lead, that was not okay. We have standards. The second half was more in line with those standards. You can’t just trade buckets and expect to be successful. We saw that two or three years ago.”
The season-long debate among Pacer fans has continued: Is it better to lose as many games as possible for those draft odds? Or is it better to find some success and build chemistry while knowing the draft lotto is a crap-shoot anyway?
Here are the basics for how the Draft Lottery works: If you have one of the worst three records in the league, you each have around a 52% chance of receiving a top-four pick. That number starts to slip from there, and dips all the way down to around 37% if you have the sixth-worst record in the league. The Pacers currently hold the fourth-worst record in the NBA, and are 1.5 games “behind” the worst record, and two games “ahead” of sixth. Additionally, the “lowest pick possible” for a team changes with each number. The team with the worst record in the league can pick no lower than fifth. The team with the second worst record can pick no lower than sixth. And so on.
If the Pacers are healthy, they will probably continue stacking up some wins the rest of the way. They could still get some luck in the lottery, and winning some games might not even matter in the end. But if you’re looking for the best possible odds and a better “lowest pick possible”, this 7-5 stretch has probably brought a mix of joy and pain.
In the meantime, it’s still good to see the Pacers finding their groove and getting rewarded for their hard work. Siakam should be an All-Star. Nembhard is hot. Walker and Furphy are stepping into their roles. And there’s a lot to like on the court.
The Pacers will play two more home games this week, on Monday and Tuesday, before the Trade Deadline. It’s impossible not to pay attention to at least some of those rumors. We’ll see what this week will bring.
